Turkey elections and the Game of Geopolitical Stratagem

Turkey Elections and the Game of Geopolitical Stratagem

Among its celebrated and influential residents such as Jewish Ottoman-Italian financier and philanthropist Abraham Salomon Camondo, Kasimpasa, in the Beyoglu district of Istanbul and located on the northern shore of the Golden Horn, one name stands out, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Born in 1954, in this working-class neighbourhood that currently has a modest property value, despite new projects along the shoreline and a 14,234 seat stadium in his honour, Kasimpasa is now shaping 21st century geopolitics, shrewdly.

Now, what makes the controversial Turkish strongman who has ruled this former Ottoman country for more than two decades, navigate to his full advantage, the complex geopolitical landscape and remain outlandishly unscathed?

For leaders whose countries occupy geostrategic territory and are gambling on the imminent collapse of rules-based international order, and increasing influence of Communist China on world affairs, totalitarian incentives in foreign policy, have never been that invaluable. Turkey, a key NATO member, sits between Europe and Asia.

The national elections in May, which saw the Turkish electorate hand over 52,14 percent of their vote to President Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), against 47,86 percent to veteran opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu`s Nation Alliance, a broad coalition of six opposition parties, strengthen the power of such incentives in future.

Held amid one of the worst socioeconomic and natural disasters in the country`s history, and seen as a challenge to the incumbent`s total grip on power, the run-off results on 28 may, were poignant towards reality, but predictable from the wide and vast corridors of the capital Ankara.

During the watershed campaign Erdogan, according to opposition members of the broadcasting watchdog, received nearly 33 hours of airtime on the main state-run TV station, while his rival Kilicdaroglu, received a mere 32 minutes.

The majority of Turkey`s media outlets at 90 percent according to Reporters Without Borders, are owned by pro-government businesses that are prone to both government influence and self-censorship.

Thus, Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) criticised the country`s biased media coverage, while international observers described the elections as free but not fair.

Erdogan, who attended Imam Hatip school—a religious educational institution, is of the view that, the majority of fault lines on his country`s territory, is a result of Western conspiracy and decadence as well as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an armed rebel group that has been designated a terrorist organisation by both the United States and the European Union.

Throughout his campaign, fiery speeches against minorities notably LGBTQ that became synonymous with the Nation Alliance, reverberated inside conservative, right wing and poor districts, that constitute the ruling AKP`s main support base.

However, the Turkish leader received swift and unequivocal congratulatory messages from Western leaders, including U.S President Joe Biden.

Biden, as the 46th U.S. president, unfortunately entered the world`s most powerful establishment the White House, following a disputed presidential election in 2020.

Indeed, the former mayor of Istanbul and first Islamist to hold the office in secular and modern-day Turkey, that was founded in 1923, Erdogan who served four of the 10 months of his prison sentence after a conviction in 1998, for inciting religious hatred through a poem, is poised to win the geopolitical stake, given his country`s geostrategic position.

In one notable instance of this geopolitical standing, the Turkish leader unilaterally breached NATO`s defence and security pact, by brokering a deal worth $2,5 billion of Russia`s S-400 missile system.

This event took place within a year following the country`s bloody coup in 2016, that was blamed on self-exiled businessman and cleric Fethulah Gulen, who resides in the United States.

The mobile surface-to-air missile system in question, which was said to pose a risk to NATO`s alliance and America`s F-35, were delivered in Turkey in July 2019, amid interested dealers from several governments.

Ankara`s clout, currently extends to neighbouring Azerbaijani territory. The Caspian country which owes this political sinewy, to cultural and linguistic Turkic ties, and has seen lucrative economic, military and trade agreements from Baku its capital, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, feels secure in Erdogan`s benign radar.

With an estimated 1,3 trillion cubic metres of proven natural gas reserves, the South Caucasus country under authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Heydar as Azerbaijan head of state shortly before his death in 2003, has become a significant hydrocarbons hub.

Last year, the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding with the energy-rich country, aimed at importing 20 billion cubic metres of gas annually, so as to reduce its dependence on Russia.

A signatory to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing`s economic flagship that has more than 150 countries and international organisations, Turkey is banking on the revival of the ancient Silk Road through climatically-favourable and economically-convenient “Middle Corridor” from Turkey through the Caucasus region and the Caspian Sea, to Central Asia and finally China.

Amid the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that has seen Ankara supporting Baku`s political position on this fiercely contested autonomous oblast in Azerbaijan, Erdogan has utter confidence as ruler of his country.

This is owing to his hawkish and transcending signature foreign policies that among others include, supplying arms and holding joint military drills against neighbouring Armenia, the world`s first Christian nation, to plans for establishing a consulate in Shusha, a city that Azerbaijan took from Armenian forces in the bloody 2020 war.

In addition to mediating in the Black Sea Grain Initiative between warring parties Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last year, in addition to blocking Sweden`s NATO membership over Stockholm`s harbouring of Kurdish dissidents, 2016 coup participants and Koran-burning by anti-Islam Swedish activist, conclude the country`s quest for balance of geopolitical power.

According to Jordan-based Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre in its 2023 edition of the “The Muslim 500,” Erdogan whose country is a traditional Western ally, and is of the belief that he is advocating the country`s new identity, is the fourth most influential Muslim, trailing only Saudi`s bin Salman, Iran`s Ayatollah Khamenei and Qatar`s Hamad Al-Thani.

Absolutely, as the only man with the power of stemming the tide of unsettling refugees into continental Europe notably Syrians, in exchange for €6 billion under the EU-Turkey deal in March 2016, one feature is however missing, geo-economics valour.

With foreign reserves according to Trading Economics, at $60 billion, down from last year`s almost $90 billion and $110 billion in 2014, and official inflation at 44 percent, Erdogan`s Islamic-inoculated economics particularly on severe interest rates cut, have seen the Turkish lira being one of the worst-performing currencies in the emerging markets.